Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
Seasonal bullish factors
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
(责任编辑:货币)
-
她们把公共场所变成自己的工作地点,为自己牟利,这是破坏秩序,是有错在先。...[详细]
-
10月31日宏利睿智稳健混合A净值下跌0.37%,近1个月累计下跌1.82%
如果要论在线教育的学习效果,内容就更不应该免费了。...[详细]
-
卡尔达诺创始人霍斯金森计划推动集体诉讼,反击诽谤与加密媒体恶意报道
在过去2年中,小米在中国智能手机市场上的排名已经从第一降至第四。...[详细]
-
在2016年IPO行情下,该公司股价暴涨7倍,成为整个市场上最受关注的大牛股。...[详细]
-
为此,徐小平笑称他惹怒了胡丹当时的老板沈南鹏,“我偷偷投资了胡丹,惹得沈南鹏大怒,沈南鹏虽然是我的好朋友,但为了支持创业者,我不怕得罪他,我跟他说‘下次你手下的人创业我还是...[详细]
-
如果搜索查询完全匹配否定关键字,则精确阻止相关搜索词。...[详细]
-
不过在医疗领域却又是另一番景象,因为法规会对此进行约束,从而产生阻碍。...[详细]
-
10月31日中欧成长领航一年持有混合C净值下跌0.92%,近1个月累计下跌4.74%
人社部部长尹蔚民曾经指出,劳动力总理仍在高位运行,一方面是招工难,一方面是就业难。...[详细]
-
这是一种全新的人力资源模式,不是以岗位来定位人才,而是以任务来收拢人才。...[详细]
-
如果没有niconico这样一个更符合年轻人口味又可以大肆吐槽的平台,像《为美好的世界献上祝福!》这样充满崩坏画面的搞笑动画也很难成为去年一月的黑马之作。...[详细]